The Northumberland board of supervisors invited Omega general manager Monty Deihl to speak last Thursday regarding the impact of the new regulations. He reported there has been little effect, so far.

Deihl said new evidence suggests the formula used by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) to complete a menhaden stock assessment does not accurately reflect the menhaden population.

Every three years, NMFS does a stock assessment on Atlantic menhaden, explained Deihl. The last stock assessment released in 2010 was a compilation of data from 2006 through 2008 and indicated that the stock was fine. When one scientist discovered that some of the data had been entered incorrectly, it was reentered correctly in 2011, resulting in a new report that overfishing had occurred in 2008 by 0.04%, said Deihl.

Overfishing is determined by the mortality rate, calculated using how many fish the NMFS believes there are and the commercial catch, said Deihl. The mortality rate is then used to set a threshold mortality rate for commercial fisheries that cannot be exceeded, and then a target or goal rate. The current threshold allows for 8% of spawning menhaden to remain in the population while the target rate allows for 20%.

“No fishery is managed to the target. It’s always in that yellow threshold area for economic benefit. If they pushed it too far towards the target, you would put too many people out of the market,” said Deihl.

He said that exceeding the threshold by 0.04% gave the fishery’s opponents all the leverage they needed to push for more stringent regulations. In November, the ASMFC decided to set the threshold at 15% and the target to 30 %. Additionally, the fisheries would have to operate at the target rate.

The ASMFC is now in the process of deciding how to implement these cuts and if it will be done all at once or over a period of time.

“To go to the threshold would have been a 23% cut in our harvest. To go to the target was going to be about a 37% cut in our harvest. I tell you, the 37% cut, we were gone,” said Deihl.

Meanwhile, a new stock assessment was completed in December using 2009 through 2011 data.

“It’s thrown quite a twist in what we see,” said Deihl.

Using the new threshold and target rates, the stock assessment shows that the menhaden stock has been depleted and that overfishing has occurred since 1955 when data was first collected.

“We’re seeing just as many fish every year as we have the year before. Our position is that the model is obviously flawed. How can you now cut our harvest based on what we’ve been doing historically and based on a flawed model?” said Deihl.

Deihl noted that the technical committee of the NMFS is working on a report to give to the ASMFC in August denoting that the current stock assessment model is flawed. Deihl said more accurate data could be collected using an aerial assessment.

“There’s never been a fishery closed because of a lack of fish,” said Deihl.

Despite the conclusions of the most recent stock assessment, Deihl still believes that “token” cuts will be made until a better model is developed. Should this occur, he anticipates some congressional support to pressure the ASMFC from making a hasty decision.

Additionally, Deihl is seeking increased support for the industry from Lancaster County.

“About 48 to 50% of our employees are from Northumberland County and 40% of them are from Lancaster County. I’ve never seen Lancaster County step up like you guys have,” Deihl told the Northumberland board members.